10 post-apocalyptic scenarios most likely to happen

Since my upcoming début novel release (a post-apocalyptic horror story, The Darkening, if you’re new here – welcome aboard, by the way) is only a few months away, I figured I might give you my personal and small list of possible doomsday scenarios. These include both civilisation collapse scenarios as well as end-of-human-species scenarios. The order is arbitrary. I don’t think anyone can argue that scenario 7 is much better and preferable than scenario 2. I’m not saying you couldn’t, just that you’d get some raised eyebrows, and you’d probably notice people getting away from you (hint: they’d be avoiding you).

Just so we’re clear, the following express personal views, peppered with a tiny touch of humour (to lighten the doomsday mood a little). Most of it, if not all, is speculation, and in some cases, fiction.

10. Man-made virus going wild

A lot has been said about research labs creating (others would use the word toying) new virus strands. Even though all of these labs have strict rules for the pathogens they handle, one can only argue that their safety measures are as strong and sound as the minds who one day said, “hey, I’m curious! Let’s create a new virus the world has never seen before and has no defence against.”

And since in order to create a vaccine one first needs to use inactive or attenuated (weakened) viruses, it pretty much implies (for the uneducated in biology, like me) that you first create the killer virus, then you get the treatment. Am I right to assume that? Probably. So what if something happens between the two steps? Bioterrorism? Accident? All of these can happen. Now, considering how easy it is for people to travel around the world these days, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if this thing spreads. Take into account that a great deal of the world’s population lives in cities, which means a large portion of human population is packed into a very small space and you have a potential recipe for bad news. And don’t get me started on the possibility of a virus mutating into something new.

9. Vaccine to man-made virus

Let’s assume the previous scenario. A man-made virus goes free. People die. Perhaps the virus mutates, and livestock dies too, threatening food supplies. Riots begin. Scientists hurry to make a vaccine. No time to run all the necessary tests to humans to ensure the vaccine’s safe. After all, it takes years of testing before a drug gets approval for humans. I’m not a biologist/biochemist, but I imagine vaccines follow the same procedure before they become available to the public. In this scenario, however, the vaccine has to circulate to the public immediately or there won’t be any public left. So people get vaccinated. The vaccine works… sort of. There are side effects. Lethal kind. Oops.

8. Dormant virus/bacteria in ice caps

Okay, all the above may happen because of a man-made virus (or vaccine that could act as a virus – scary!). But naturally occurring viruses and bacteria have been around far longer than humans have, they have been thriving all over us, and they don’t need our help to be lethal. Also, it’s possible that we haven’t discovered all of them. In fact, it’s possible that there may be virus strands or bacteria out there that are dormant, possibly lying in the polar ice caps. Perhaps our immune system is not able to deal with all of them. And since we’re still coming out of the last Ice Age (if I remember well from my Geology studies, it ended around 12,000 years ago, but the planet is still experiencing lower-than-normal temperatures) it’s only normal to see rises in global temperature. That’s what the planet wants after all. The planet having ice caps has not been as common in the past (geologically speaking) as it is now. In fact, in the last 100 million years Earth has experienced one third of the total amount of ice ages it experienced from its creation up to that point.

It’s all about balancing the system. So, it’s possible that once the ice melts, something nasty and invisible to the naked eye could slip into the food chain and eventually reach us. Or it could affect a species we are depended upon, like wheat or corn or, even worse, bees.

7. Existing virus/bacteria becoming super-resistant

I know people (and I mean people I interact with pretty much on a daily basis) who will gladly take antibiotics the moment they get a sniffle or if they sneeze (don’t do it, kids. That’s bad for you, mkay?). But what that does is strengthening the bacteria we’re trying to kill (no antibiotics for viruses, by the way). Not to mention they weaken our natural defences against them. And since bacteria have been around for almost 3.5 billion years, if not more, (cyanobacteria were probably among the first ones to appear, if anyone is wandering – also known as Stromatolites in Geology),

and have survived pretty much everything the universe has thrown at them (extensive basaltic/igneous activity, meteors, ice ages, humans), it shouldn’t come as a surprise that at some point they may have the potential to wipe us out. If not wipe us out, then decimate us. Or another link in the food chain that we depend upon. And since we’re doing everything we can to make them stronger in our attempt to weaken them, there may come a point in time when they will no longer agree with us or our civilisation being here.

6. Extra terrestrial body colliding with Earth (and, yes, possibly carrying a dormant strand of virus or bacteria with them. Why not?)

Poor T-Rex was having one of his best days, warming its skin in the hot and humid climate of the Cretaceous period (way hotter than today, by the way), when a ball of fire crashed somewhere over the horizon. I can almost hear him saying, “Ralph, I had a doozy of day. You won’t believe what I saw. A fireball! It was so small, I could probably hold it in my hands! Yeah, Ralph, of course I could. My arms and hands are bigger than yours, man.”

Events like the meteor that wiped out most lifeforms 65 million years ago don’t happen every day. But they do happen. And not just once. Considering all the debris left behind from the formation of our solar system (Kuiper Belt), the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter (most likely an event that took place long after the formation of our solar system), and all the other bits and pieces floating around us, it’s not a very far fetched probability that one of these will be big enough to cause a similar event. For the record, the next encounter with a big one will be in 2028. Meteorites of much smaller size penetrate the Earth’s upper atmosphere on a daily basis. Remember that meteorite a few years back that burned over Russia?

You don’t have to panic. Like I said, bodies large enough to cause extinction events don’t land too often. Just do what that Russian driver did. Relax and carry on.

5. Nuclear war

This scenario was more prominent back in the 50s and 60s, but that doesn’t mean it will never happen. It’s all about those who control the red buttons, and ultimately how much we respect others near us. For the record, there are about 15,000 warheads out there.

4. Increased volcanic activity

The mechanism for this scenario is active and it’s the thing that keeps the planet alive. This scenario involves super-volcanoes (Yellowstone – USA, Santorini a.k.a. Thera – Greece), mid-oceanic ridges, large igneous provinces etc. Volcanic activity is something that directly affects the climate. The Santorini eruption that wiped out the Minoan civilisation in Crete ejected material more than four times that of the Krakatoan eruption back in 1883, and many researchers believe that its effects were seen all the way to China. I remember watching a documentary once many years ago where geologists claimed that there is evidence of a rock layer in the Eastern United States that may be related to that explosion. That’s half a planet away, folks. Now imagine all of them going boom together.

In the past (about 250 million years ago – end of Permian period) there was extensinve basaltic activity across what is now the northern hemisphere that covered a great deal of the land in basaltic material (like the Siberian traps, for example). This went on for a very long time. And, you guessed it, it’s associated with another massive extinction event, aptly named “The Great Dying.” 96% of all species died due to a chain of events that originated from that particular eruption. Make no mistake folks, volcanoes are the driving force behind Earth’s climate. Particularly, those on mid ocean ridges. If they go super excited, almost everything on Earth will become super extinct.

3. Increased solar activity/super nova/solar storms

Everything in the universe changes and tries to come to a new state of balance. The Sun is the same. From time to time, its activity increases, and we end up having solar storms. The sun ejects part of its corona, which in turn hits the Earth’s magnetosphere. Sometimes, this is a more violent event than usual. Back in 1859, one such explosion fried the telegraph poles. Now imagine either a similar or an even stronger one hitting our network-depended society. “End of the world” doesn’t necessarily mean end of life. Sometimes it means collapse of civilisation.

2. Modern infrastructure shutting down

Since our modern civilisation is depended on networked systems and technology, one or more nasty individuals or groups of people (or even a natural event), could potentially trigger something that would disrupt (meaning destroy) the very technology we so much depend upon. That could send us to the stone age. Keep in mind that we purify our water in our water treatment plants with computerised systems. Electricity is distributed safely thanks to computerised systems. Let’s not forget the banking system. Again, this is a scenario that has more to do with civilisation collapsing than end of all living things or end of the human species.

1. AI (war for resources)

Apparently the new rave is artificial intelligence. When will we build one, a lot of people ask. Why don’t we build one, others say. Some claim that it will help us live a better life. Easy there, chump. Have you considered the possibility that the AI will realise that it needs more energy not only to evolve but to sustain itself and its higher functions than we allow it to have, because we too need energy for our everyday activities? What will happen when it comes down to I need it more than you do? Do you think a sentient existence will simply step aside and let us have all of it? Especially since we have a proven track record of wasting energy? If it reaches the point where the AI considers itself as part of the natural processes taking place (like consuming energy, which is something every living organism does), what’s to stop it from following the simplest pattern exhibited in almost all living things: I’m stronger, you’re not. Especially, if we have allowed it full access to all the things we desperately need to survive. Like clean water.

Honourable mention

Overpopulation + lack of land to cultivate food. I will not go into that. It’s pretty self-explanatory.

Learning new things

*Disclaimer: I’m in the mood for gifs today, so you’ll get a few of them with this post*

Being self published doesn’t always mean you have to do everything on your own, but sometimes circumstances force you to do so.

As I mentioned earlier, my debut post apocalyptic horror novel, The Darkening, will be launched near the end of the year, probably around late October or early November. For that, I have hired an editor (all edits are now done) and am waiting to hear back from my designer. Unfortunately, his busy schedule doesn’t allow him to start working on my project before July. So after I dealt with these two very important parts of the production of a book, I thought that would be it. I’d upload the manuscript on each platform, and all I’d have to do between then and the launch date would be to promote it.

Ermm, how about no?

It turned out that I had forgotten another important bit: internal formatting.

What in the name of dark hell was that?!

I had spent virtually all my (meagre) budget on the editor and I would spend the remaining on the designer. In fact, after reviewing my budget, I realised I had nothing left for promotion!

So the first thought was: is internal formatting something I can skip?

Apparently no. Well, I could, but that would interfere with the quality of the product I wanted to produce.

Now, I know that Amazon has created a Word plugin that creates a basic template for all the available printing options they provide, including trim size. But the problem for me was that this plugin only works on newer versions of Word, you know, the ones with the ugly ribbon menu thing its creators decided to introduce?

Yeah, how about no?

Like many other writers out there, I refuse to work on something with a UI (user interface) that is non-configurable based on my needs. If you think that I’m the only weirdo around the writing realms, think again!

You tell ’em, George!

So since the Word version I work with (2003, if you’re wondering) could not use that plugin and I could not outsource the task, I had to figure out how to format my book on my own. And I did. Partly… Sort of… Kind of…

Enter InDesign. Luckily a friend lent me an older version of the program to test and try out just for this project. And surprisingly enough, if one who knows nothing about internal formatting or InDesign wishes to use it to create simple interior book designs, then it won’t take more than a couple of days to learn it. Thank Youtube for that!

So I managed to create a decent printable copy of my manuscript, and I now have a fraction of a basic understanding of how to use the program. It’s definitely in my to-buy list, even though I know I will only be using a tiny fraction of its capabilities.

Now if I could only figure out a way to make it create a decent epub version without messing everything up, I’d be one step closer to world domination!

 

Elements of Horror

I’m in the process of publishing my second short story, most likely in a month’s time. It’s a horror story, titled At Horizon’s End. Horror is a genre I feel more comfortable with, primarily, I think, because it allows me to play
with darker and grimmer settings and endings, which I love. Now, to be clear, I don’t write the gory, splatter type of horror. I’m happier writing the psychological type, the subtler one.

Which made me wonder, what does a horror story need to have to be effective? Of course what follows is my take on it, as I understand it and the way I write it. It doesn’t mean it’s the only way.

First of all an effective horror story needs a strong setting. Regardless if your story takes place in a room, a town, on another planet, on a dark spaceship, over frozen forests and mountain ranges, setting can be your best ally, because it creates mood and sets the tone. Take Stephen King’s IT for instance. It’s the simplest setting one can get; a town with a sewer system. But with something sinister in those sewers. When I was reading the story a few years ago, and I was at any point where the heroes were walking or cycling on the streets, I kept thinking that something may pop out of one of the sewers. Even where there was no mention of said sewers at a particular scene. Why? Because King’s descriptions of the sewer in that early scene (I’m trying to avoid any spoilers, which is why I’m being so vague) made me keep it at the back of my head, and made me expect something nasty to come out of there at any moment.

Depending on the story and a writer’s style, a horror story needs to play with some keywords that will draw the reader in. I can’t give you specific examples, since it depends on each writer’s style and how each story evolves.
But when the writer transports you to a dark room with dripping sounds all around, it adds a little something when said writer describes the sound of dragging feet or the sound of creaking floorboards as the house settles along
its beams. The choice of words (dragging and creaking in this example) have a greater impact than writing that someone walked upstairs and sounds came from the house. The choice of words in the latter example is poor.

One of my favourite things to use in horror stories include characters and situations who are contrasting the general idea of the story. For instance, if my story involves Death (personified) at some point , then I will most likely choose a child for a main character (as is the case of At Horizon’s End). Why? Because on one hand we have a child’s carefreeness, which also represents life, and on the other we have the grimness and the frailty of life.
In my mind, it can’t get more contrasting than that. When I was brainstorming for my first novel, The Darkening, the idea of pitting a survivor of an apocalyptic event against the shadow he could cast at any given moment (which is one of the most natural things to occur, since our world is full of light and we rely so much on our sight) was extremely intriguing. For the past year, I’ve been struggling with a horror short story (that keeps getting bigger and bigger, by the way) that takes a married couple, who at first glance love each other. As the story goes on, the events that unfold strip away their humanity and love, while at the same time exposing their secrets and their view of each other, by forcing each of the two to do something horrible in order to carry on living. Selfless love acts versus survival.

Of course all the above are pointless unless the writer uses a villain who is a million times stronger than the hero. That villain could be the world, a phenomenon, something out of this world, or, if you aim for the gory/slasher type of horror story, perhaps another human who is wicked (make sure to give them wants and fears – you want the villain to appear like a real person after all). And all this because the writer wants to evoke fear. No unbeatable villain, no fear. No fear, no horror.

When it comes to pacing, the writer needs to be crafty. In my understanding, there needs to be an exponential escalation of negative effects from beginning to climax. If your story deals with only one negative event, then
you need to build up to that moment, and when it comes, hit the reader as fast as possible, as hard as possible. For example, if your whole story revolves around a character’s choice about whether or not he/she should stand up to Death and challenge him to obtain something very important, then play with the anticipation your pacing can create. Build it up throughout the story, perhaps by having the hero questioning the effectiveness of such a choice, then when the moment comes, have your character make that choice. From there on, take your reader on a roller coaster unlike any other. If it’s a series of bad things happening, make sure each is worse or scarier than the previous, then hit the reader with the worst, the epitome of nastiness, in one swift go. Anticipation depends on pacing. Much like the roller coaster I mentioned earlier, you could start your story slowly, and leave the reader constantly wondering what will happen next, always hinting at the worst (foreshadowing). The writer can also allow the reader to get a glimpse of a positive outcome for the hero, but it has to be snatched away for the negative climax to have the greatest impact. Another way to do it is to hint on how terrible the outcome of the given choice will be, and at the same time, force the hero into a corner where that choice is a one-way road. The writer can also allow the reader to settle at a state of relative peace by having the hero overcoming minor negative effects, in order to amplify the negative outcome of the climax.

If the writer uses anticipation properly, then it creates the next important thing for a horror story: dread. The writer can allow a constant underlying question of “what’s going to happen to the hero next? What will the cost to
the hero’s soul be?” My understanding of dread is that it usually works best if the writer sprinkles a little mystery in the horror recipe. If it’s a given that the hero will die at the end of the story, and the reader knows this, dread is vital to make the story appealing. In the short story I’ve been struggling with for so long, it is an undisputed fact that the heroes will not come out at the end of the story the same way they walked into it. The reader knows this. The reader also knows that things will get better, if the heroes do one thing, which will be catastrophic for the other. So the question becomes, “who’s going to come out with the least damage and how will they do it? What will they have sacrificed in the process? What will the villain do to keep them from succeeding?” The reader knows something the characters don’t (or simply refuse to acknowledge) and that builds dread, which adds to the anticipation.

All the above (dread, anticipation, fear) are visceral emotions the writer needs to play with and ultimately, exploit and amplify. But the writer needs strong descriptions for this, which takes us back to setting.

Finally, the writer could also use tragedy to his/her advantage, and/or drama (but drama only in its modern Greek sense, which means unpleasant effect or unwanted situation, which is different from what ancient Greeks meant when they used the term, and vastly different from what nowadays passes for drama in the western world). If the writer aims for a sense of tragedy, then it’s important to bind it with character flaws and poor choices, and perhaps make use of strong contrasts, like I mentioned earlier. All this should add to the empathy the reader develops for the hero throughout the story, which also allows readers to “experience” what the heroes feel.

So, what are your favourite horror stories?

My next editing moves

Through Stranger Eyes has reached the point in the revision/editing process where only minor details remain, as you can see from the sample image below.

sample-view1-compressed

If you thought to yourselves that it’s way too cluttered for me to be calling these as “minor details,” you should have seen it after I finished drafting it. So what’s minor details? By minor details, I mean finalising character names (the green bits you see scattered all over the place) and/or some names for places, and of course work on continuity (the comment bubbles at the left side). Some of those are question I ask myself about the world or what my main character sees or has seen so far.

What? Don’t tell me you don’t debate with yourselves about these things. Little things, like, “should he see X detail now or five pages later when the character enters Y place?” or “should she have this dialogue line here, or should I have used it in the previous chapter?” I’m sure you do it too. You are, right? I’m not the only one who does that, yes?

*crickets*

Anyway, once that’s done, I’m thinking of editing in a slightly different way than what I did for The Darkening. This time, I’ll print it out first (instead of doing it at the very end), take my trusty red pen, probably delete or change somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the whole thing, then transfer the edits to the digital copy. Once that’s done, I’ll look for those sneaky filter words with my trusty macros, and use my favourite online tool for sentence lengths.

For sentence lengths (but not just that) I’m using Slick Write and I’m loving the flow graph they provide (found at the left sidebar, after you paste part of your manuscript and press the Check button), particularly the Sentence Length Flow. If the graph isn’t a perfect (or as near to a perfect to my satisfaction) wavy pattern (yeah, fine, sinusoidal graph, for you with a mathematics/physics background) then it’s time to tweak the problematic sentences. Once that’s done, it’s off to betas, around late spring by my estimates. Hopefully.

Agent fear

The day draws near where I will have to start sending queries out to the agents I have been stalking on twitter, and have added in small manageable groups in my excel file. For the past few weeks I have been putting the whole thing off as much as possible and quite frankly, I don’t know why. When my friends ask me (the one or two who know I write) if I’ve had any replies from agents, I tell them I’m waiting for summer to send any queries, so I won’t have to stop working on Through Stranger Eyes (my current WIP) and start on revisions a potential agent may ask. I don’t want to tackle that part of the process with leftover baggage from my current WIP. Sometimes, I answer that I’m holding back to avoid having to revise and edit in the middle of a heat wave on my mobile phone instead of my PC again. I don’t think I could work on a novel-length manuscript on my mobile phone for another summer. (Hint: No A/C for me. PC’s exhaust sends air exceeding 60 C. Not a nice work environment).

However, a few days ago I think I realised I may be a little bit afraid and uncertain about my synopsis and my query. Yes, these two culprits again. I don’t know. Maybe they are not to blame at all.  So now I’ve set a date, a self-imposed deadline. Apparently, I work better when I have deadlines for things that are not directly related to creative work (like attaching files to an email and hitting the send button, as opposed to having to finish a 100k word novel by a specific date, no matter what).

I will send the first query on 10 June. Hopefully I will have finished Through Stranger Eyes by then, and I’ll be able to focus exclusively on the agent hunting process. Fingers crossed.